GEO: QUIET
10
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity is currently characterized by moderate levels with no significant geomagnetic storms. While flare probabilities for C-class events are high, the current space weather environment remains stable.
The sun is exhibiting moderate activity with 15 active regions identified, though current x-ray output remains at background levels. The F10.7 flux is holding steady at 108 sfu, suggesting a stable solar output. Planetary Kp-index readings are fluctuating near 2.7, which indicates a calm, unsettled geomagnetic environment with no immediate impact on satellite or power grid infrastructure.
The 65% probability of M-class flares is the primary metric to monitor, as this indicates the potential for localized radio degradation on the sunlit side of Earth.
Expect the Kp-index to remain below storm thresholds, with minor variations between Kp 1.6 and 3.6 over the next 24 hours. Radio communication remains stable, though observers should anticipate consistent minor C-class flare activity due to the presence of multiple active regions.
Aurora visibility is not expected at mid-latitudes (40-60°N) for the next 24 hours. Occasional, faint activity may be confined to high polar latitudes under dark-sky conditions.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4455 | N15E65 | Dao/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4454 | S15E48 | Hrx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4453 | N11W76 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4452 | N09W35 | Dai/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4449 | S10E09 | Hax/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4448 | S06E14 | Cro/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4447 | S17W28 | Dsi/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4446 | S16E16 | Fko/BG | 0/0/0 |
| AR4444 | S21W22 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4443 | S17W81 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
Monitor the magnetic complexity of active region AR4446, which shows Beta-Gamma characteristics that could potentially produce higher-magnitude flaring than currently observed.