M @ 06:57 UTC
GEO: QUIET
9
A/B (quiet)
The Sun remains in an unsettled state following a recent M-class flare from AR4455. While background geomagnetic levels are currently stable at Kp 3, increased flare activity indicates an active region capable of moderate eruptions.
Current solar activity is defined by 13 active regions, with AR4455 demonstrating the most significant magnetic complexity. The F10.7 flux is at 106 sfu, indicating moderate solar output. Geomagnetic conditions are currently unsettled with a Kp-index of 3.0, posing no immediate threat to terrestrial infrastructure or satellite operations.
The 50% probability for M-class flares is the most important metric, as it suggests the potential for continued radio degradation on the sunlit side of Earth.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain unsettled, with a projected peak of Kp 3.67 in the next 24 hours. There is a 50% probability of further M-class flare activity, though X-class events remain unlikely at this time.
Aurora visibility is not expected at mid-latitudes (40-60°N) under current conditions. Observers at high latitudes may see minor auroral activity, but conditions are currently too quiet for displays further south.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4455 | N15E52 | Eho/BG | 1/1/0 |
| AR4454 | S15E34 | Hrx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4453 | N12W88 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4452 | N10W48 | Dai/BG | 0/0/0 |
| AR4449 | S10W02 | Csi/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4448 | S06E01 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4447 | S17W41 | Csi/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4446 | S16E03 | Fho/BG | 0/0/0 |
| AR4444 | S21W35 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
Monitor the magnetic evolution of AR4455 for signs of further flux emergence that could heighten the potential for more significant X-ray bursts.