GEO: UNSETTLED
9
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity remains at quiet to unsettled levels with no significant geomagnetic storms currently in progress. While the Kp-index is low, elevated flare probabilities warrant monitoring as active regions cross the disk.
The geomagnetic field is currently quiet with a Kp-index of 1.3. We are observing 14 active solar regions, with AR4446 maintaining a complex magnetic configuration. The F10.7 solar radio flux holds steady at 108.0 sfu, indicating moderate solar output consistent with current cycle progression.
The 70% probability of M-class flares is the most important metric, as it suggests the potential for localized radio blackouts despite the currently quiet geomagnetic environment.
Expect geomagnetic conditions to remain largely unsettled, with the Kp-index likely fluctuating near 3.0 throughout the next 24 hours. No significant storming is anticipated, though the high probability of C-class flares suggests potential for minor, transient radio interference on the sunlit side of Earth.
Aurora visibility is not expected for mid-latitudes at this time. Observers in high-latitude regions may see minor, localized activity if the Kp-index holds at the projected 3.0 level.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4452 | N09W21 | Cai/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4450 | N10E21 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4449 | S11E22 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4448 | S07E28 | Cao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4447 | S16W15 | Dsi/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4446 | S16E29 | Fko/BG | 0/0/0 |
| AR4445 | N07W03 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4444 | S21W09 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4443 | S17W70 | Cao/B | 0/0/0 |
Monitor active region AR4446 for magnetic evolution that could increase the likelihood of M-class solar flares.