GEO: QUIET
9
A/B (quiet)
Current solar conditions remain generally quiet, though elevated flare probabilities suggest ongoing activity across multiple active regions. The geomagnetic field is currently stable but expected to experience brief periods of minor unrest within the next 24 hours.
The sun is currently displaying moderate activity with an F10.7 flux of 117.0 sfu and multiple active regions across the disk. While flare production is currently confined to the C-class range, the presence of 35 active regions suggests a complex photosphere. Geomagnetic indices are fluctuating near Kp 2.7, indicating a quiet to unsettled environment for satellite operators and power grid monitoring.
The 55% probability for M-class flares is the primary metric to track, as it indicates a sustained potential for solar impulsive events that could disrupt localized radio communications.
Expect geomagnetic activity to briefly peak at Kp 4.0 around 06:00 UTC on May 3rd as current solar wind conditions persist. Flare activity will likely remain focused in the C-class range, though there is a non-trivial 55% chance of an M-class eruption given the current solar configuration.
Aurora visibility is not expected at mid-latitudes (40-60°N). While the brief rise to Kp 4.0 may offer limited viewing for observers in extreme high-latitude locations, mid-latitude regions will remain largely unaffected.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4432 | N11E68 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4431 | S16E53 | Dao/B | 2/0/0 |
| AR4428 | S23W27 | Dai/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4425 | N05W19 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4423 | S10W67 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4424 | N17W49 | Eai/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4420 | N16W83 | Cao/B | 4/0/0 |
| AR4429 | S04E20 | Dso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4430 | N16W31 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
Monitor AR4431 and AR4432 as they rotate; their evolving magnetic complexity will determine if the current 20% X-class flare probability increases in the coming days.