M @ 13:49 UTC · M @ 14:20 UTC
GEO: QUIET
8
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity remains elevated with multiple active regions producing moderate-class flares. Geomagnetic conditions are currently unsettled but are expected to reach G1 (minor storm) levels by late UTC today.
Eleven active regions are currently visible on the solar disk, with an F10.7 flux of 152.0 sfu indicating high solar activity. While X-ray flux is currently quiet, a series of M-class flares occurred earlier today, primarily originating from AR4461. The current Kp index is 3.3, reflecting an unsettled geomagnetic field following recent solar wind disturbances.
The M-class flare probability of 45% is the most critical metric as it highlights the potential for localized radio interference and ongoing solar instability.
Geomagnetic activity is forecast to briefly reach G1 storm levels around 21:00 UTC today due to incoming solar wind influences, before subsiding to quiet levels by early tomorrow. Flare risk remains notable, with a 45% probability of additional M-class events within the next 24 hours.
Aurora visibility is generally restricted to high latitudes. Observers in northern Canada, Scandinavia, and high-latitude regions may see minor activity near the 21:00 UTC window; mid-latitude viewing is unlikely.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4463 | N16E50 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4462 | N16E20 | Dai/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4461 | S21E19 | Cro/B | 0/1/0 |
| AR4459 | N43W04 | Dsi/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4458 | S05W49 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4456 | N17W34 | Cro/BG | 4/0/0 |
| AR4455 | N15W62 | Dsi/BG | 1/0/0 |
| AR4464 | S12E51 | Cai/B | 0/0/0 |
Monitor AR4461 for additional impulsive M-class flaring that could briefly impact high-frequency radio propagation on the sunlit side of Earth.