GEO: QUIET
7
A/B (quiet)
Geomagnetic conditions are currently unsettled at Kp 3.3 following recent solar activity. While background X-ray flux remains quiet, seven active regions remain on the disk, maintaining a persistent risk of solar flares.
The current planetary K-index is 3.3, reflecting an unsettled geomagnetic state that is expected to subside toward quieter levels. With 30 active regions currently present and an F10.7 flux of 108 sfu, the solar atmosphere maintains a moderate level of complexity. AR4419 and AR4423 remain the primary points of interest due to their demonstrated capacity for M and X-class flare production.
The 40% probability for M-class flares is the most important metric, as it indicates a sustained risk of sudden ionospheric disturbances on the sunlit side of Earth.
Geomagnetic activity is forecast to stabilize to quiet levels (Kp 2.0) within the next 24 hours as current minor disturbances dissipate. Flare probability remains elevated, particularly for M-class events, as the active regions continue their rotation across the solar disk.
Aurora visibility is currently restricted to high-latitude regions. No significant displays are expected at mid-latitudes (40-60°N) given the projected decline in geomagnetic indices.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4424 | N17E45 | Cro/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4423 | S05E30 | Dai/BD | 5/1/0 |
| AR4425 | N06E76 | Dso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4420 | N17E10 | Eki/BGD | 0/0/0 |
| AR4422 | N08W73 | Hrx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4419 | N15W79 | Eso/BGD | 1/1/2 |
| AR4421 | S11E24 | Hsx/A | 1/0/0 |
Monitor AR4423 as it rotates toward a more central position, as its potential for further M-class activity could influence regional radio propagation.