GEO: QUIET
3
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity is currently stable, characterized by low-level C-class flare production and quiet geomagnetic conditions. While no significant storms are anticipated, we expect a modest increase in geomagnetic unrest over the next 24 hours.
The sun is currently in a quiet state, with an F10.7 flux of 118.0 sfu indicating moderate solar radio output. There are six active regions on the solar disk, though none are currently manifesting significant magnetic complexity. Kp index levels remain low at 2.3, suggesting a stable magnetosphere with minimal current interaction from solar wind streams.
The predicted Kp of 3.67 is the most important metric as it marks a transition from quiet to unsettled conditions, though it remains below storm thresholds.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach a minor level of unrest, peaking at Kp 3.67 during the next 24-hour window. This is a standard fluctuation rather than a storm, and no significant disruptions to radio communications or satellite operations are anticipated.
Aurora visibility is not expected for mid-latitudes (40-60°N). Observers at very high latitudes may see minor activity, but the current solar wind environment does not support a southward excursion of the auroral oval.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4470 | N07E54 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4469 | S16W06 | Bxo/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4465 | N07W49 | Cso/B | 1/0/0 |
Monitor AR4470 as it rotates into a more geo-effective position, as its development could alter the 48-hour flare forecast.