M @ 00:21 UTC
GEO: QUIET
8
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity remains elevated due to two flare-capable active regions. Geomagnetic conditions are currently unsettled following a minor disturbance, with levels expected to subside over the next 24 hours.
The sun is currently in an unsettled state with a F10.7 flux of 111 sfu, reflecting moderate solar activity. Active regions AR4425 and AR4423 have demonstrated M-class flare potential, as evidenced by recent activity in the last 12 hours. The planetary K-index is currently at 2.7, following a period of minor geomagnetic unrest.
The M-class flare probability of 55% is the primary metric to watch, as it indicates a persistent risk for minor, transient radio interference on the sunlit side of Earth.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to taper off, moving from unsettled levels back toward quiet conditions by midday. While the potential for M-class flares persists at 55%, major impacts on terrestrial infrastructure are not currently anticipated.
Aurora visibility for mid-latitudes is unlikely given the current trend toward Kp 2. Observers at high latitudes may see minor activity, but lower latitudes should expect quiet skies.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4427 | S30E67 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4421 | S11E12 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4423 | S05E18 | Dai/BGD | 3/1/0 |
| AR4420 | N16W01 | Fki/BGD | 2/0/0 |
| AR4425 | N05E66 | Eac/BG | 5/1/0 |
| AR4424 | N16E33 | Dsi/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4426 | N12W37 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4422 | N08W85 | Hrx/A | 0/0/0 |
Monitor the evolution of AR4425 as it rotates further across the disk for any signs of magnetic complexity that could increase the likelihood of X-class activity.