M @ 10:25 UTC
GEO: QUIET
3
A/B (quiet)
Geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet with Kp levels stable at 1.3. While the geomagnetic environment is calm, solar flare activity is elevated due to the presence of complex active regions on the solar disk.
The solar atmosphere is active, with five identified active regions and an F10.7 flux index of 124.0 sfu. We observed two M-class solar flares in the last 12 hours, indicating high magnetic complexity, though these events have not yet triggered a significant geomagnetic response at Earth.
The 60% probability of M-class flares is the primary metric to monitor, as continued localized eruptions could increase the risk of intermittent radio interference.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours, with Kp indices hovering between 1 and 2. However, there is a sustained 60% probability for additional M-class flares, which could impact high-frequency radio communications on the sunlit side of the planet.
Aurora visibility is not expected at mid-latitudes during this period. The current low geomagnetic activity is insufficient to push the auroral oval south of high-latitude regions.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4480 | S16W56 | Esi/BG | 1/1/0 |
| AR4479 | N17W52 | Eki/BGD | 3/1/0 |
| AR4478 | S05W33 | Fki/BGD | 0/0/0 |
Watch for potential X-ray flux spikes from regions AR4479 and AR4480, which have demonstrated the capacity for M-class eruptive activity.