M @ 13:12 UTC
GEO: QUIET
3
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity is shifting from a quiet state to active conditions as geomagnetic disturbances are forecast to ramp up over the next 12 hours. We anticipate a G2 geomagnetic storm by midnight, driven by anticipated solar wind impacts.
While current Kp levels are at a modest 2.3, the solar environment is becoming more dynamic. Active region AR4480 recently produced an M-class flare, contributing to the current 132 sfu F10.7 index, suggesting a moderate, sustained level of solar output as we head into the overnight period.
The forecasted Kp 5.67 peak is the most critical metric, as it indicates a G2 storm level sufficient to influence power grid fluctuations and satellite drag for low-Earth orbit operators.
Conditions are expected to escalate quickly, moving from Kp 4.67 at 18:00 UTC to a peak of Kp 5.67 (G2 storm) by 00:00 UTC on July 4. Expect sustained unsettled to active conditions throughout the remainder of the forecast window.
Observers at mid-latitudes (40-60°N) should monitor local conditions starting late this evening as the G2 storm develops. While visibility is not guaranteed at the lower end of the range, conditions are favorable for aurora sightings in northern Canada, Scandinavia, and similar high-latitude regions.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4480 | S17W71 | Eai/BG | 1/1/0 |
| AR4479 | N16W66 | Eki/BGD | 4/0/0 |
| AR4478 | S06W45 | Fko/BG | 1/0/0 |
Watch for the transition in the Kp index between 18:00 and 21:00 UTC, which will confirm the arrival of the solar wind perturbation.