GEO: QUIET
2
A/B (quiet)
Geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet but are forecast to reach G2 (moderate) levels later today. This shift is likely due to the arrival of lingering solar wind stream effects.
The planetary K-index is currently at 2.3, indicating quiet geomagnetic conditions following a period of higher activity. Solar activity remains moderate with an F10.7 flux of 118.0 sfu and limited C-class flare production from active regions AR4436 and AR4438. X-ray flux remains in the background A/B range, reflecting a generally stable solar environment.
The forecasted Kp of 5.67 is the most critical metric, as it indicates a transient G2 storm that may impact satellite drag and high-latitude radio propagation.
Conditions are expected to escalate rapidly, with Kp levels forecast to hit 5.67 (G2) by 21:00 UTC. Following this brief spike, activity will likely subside to Kp 3.0 by 00:00 UTC on May 17th.
Aurora observers at high latitudes should be prepared for potential visibility between 18:00 and 00:00 UTC. Mid-latitude observers should remain alert for a brief, windowed opportunity for display during the G2 peak, though conditions are not expected to support widespread sightings.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4436 | N19W26 | Cao/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4438 | N21W70 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
Monitor the Kp index for a sustained rise between 18:00 and 21:00 UTC, which will confirm the arrival of the predicted geomagnetic disturbance.