GEO: QUIET
5
A/B (quiet)
Solar conditions are currently quiet, though a rise in geomagnetic activity is expected late today. The Kp-index is forecasted to reach 4.67 by 21:00 UTC due to incoming solar wind influences.
Solar activity remains at low levels with a moderate F10.7 flux of 117 sfu. Six active regions are present on the disk, though none are currently producing significant X-ray flares. The planetary K-index is steady at 2.3, indicating calm geomagnetic conditions for the present time.
The forecasted Kp-index of 4.67 is the most critical metric as it marks the threshold between calm space weather and minor, unsettled geomagnetic disturbance.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to shift from quiet to unsettled this evening. Expect the Kp-index to climb toward 4.67 (G0/G1 threshold) between 18:00 and 21:00 UTC before subsiding back toward quiet levels by early May 18.
Aurora visibility for mid-latitudes (40-60°N) is unlikely at current levels. If the Kp-index hits the forecast peak of 4.67 later tonight, faint auroral activity may be visible from high-latitude regions, such as northern Canada or Scandinavia, but low-latitude sightings remain improbable.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4436 | N18W40 | Hsx/A | 1/0/0 |
| AR4439 | N06E52 | Dao/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4441 | N18E13 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4440 | N17E54 | Hax/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4438 | N20W85 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
Monitor the 21:00 UTC geomagnetic observations for any unexpected strengthening of the K-index that could push conditions into a brief G1 storm.