M @ 07:59 UTC
GEO: QUIET
6
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity is currently quiet with no geomagnetic storms in progress. Attention is focused on active region AR4423, which produced an M-class flare earlier today.
The planetary K-index is at a stable 1.3, reflecting quiet geomagnetic conditions. While solar X-ray output is currently at background levels, the presence of eight active regions maintains a steady F10.7 flux of 108 sfu. AR4423 remains the most significant feature on the disk, carrying the potential for further moderate flare activity.
The 40% probability for M-class flares is the most important metric, as it suggests the potential for brief, localized radio interference on the sunlit side of Earth.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain unsettled, with the Kp-index projected to rise toward 4.33 later in the day as potential solar wind stream effects materialize. No significant radio blackouts are anticipated, though minor flare activity remains likely.
Aurora visibility is currently limited to high-latitude regions. Observers at mid-latitudes are unlikely to see displays unless there is an unforecasted surge in geomagnetic activity during the late-day Kp rise.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4424 | N16E31 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4423 | S07E15 | Dai/BD | 1/1/0 |
| AR4425 | N05E61 | Dac/BG | 2/0/0 |
| AR4421 | S12E09 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4420 | N15W03 | Fki/BGD | 0/0/0 |
| AR4426 | N12W39 | Dso/B | 0/0/0 |
Monitor AR4423 for any rapid increases in magnetic complexity, which could signal a higher probability of stronger flare production.