M @ 07:59 UTC · M @ 14:30 UTC
GEO: QUIET
8
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity is shifting toward active conditions as geomagnetic disturbances are forecast to reach G1 (minor) levels. Two active regions are currently producing M-class flares, indicating a productive solar disk.
The current geomagnetic field remains relatively quiet with a Kp of 1.3, though recent activity shows signs of acceleration. Solar activity is punctuated by two M-class flares reported within the last twelve hours from AR4425 and AR4423. With nine active regions currently monitored and an F10.7 flux of 108 sfu, the overall solar environment is maintaining a moderate pace.
The forecasted Kp reaching 4.67 is the primary indicator of an imminent minor geomagnetic storm that may influence power grid fluctuations and satellite drag.
Expect a transition to unsettled and active geomagnetic conditions throughout the next 24 hours. Forecast models suggest Kp indices climbing toward 4.67 by late UTC hours, likely resulting in a G1-level minor geomagnetic storm.
Aurora visibility is restricted to high latitudes. Observers in northern Canada, Scandinavia, and high-latitude US states may have a localized chance to observe auroral activity as the G1 conditions manifest, though mid-latitude viewing remains unlikely.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4420 | N16W01 | Fki/BGD | 1/0/0 |
| AR4421 | S11E12 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4422 | N08W85 | Hrx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4426 | N12W37 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4423 | S05E18 | Dai/BGD | 1/1/0 |
| AR4424 | N16E33 | Dsi/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4427 | S30E67 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4425 | N05E66 | Eac/BG | 4/1/0 |
Monitor the magnetic complexity of AR4425 and AR4423, as these regions remain the primary drivers for any additional M-class flares in the next 12-24 hours.