M @ 14:01 UTC
GEO: QUIET
7
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity is currently active with two M-class flare producers and a brief period of G1 geomagnetic activity anticipated later today. While current conditions are calm, the solar disc remains complex with nine active regions identified.
Current planetary Kp remains at 1.7, indicating quiet geomagnetic conditions. However, the solar environment is dynamic with two active regions, AR4420 and AR4425, contributing to recent M-class flare activity. Solar radio flux is moderate at 111 sfu, reflecting a steady baseline of solar intensity.
The 21:00 UTC Kp forecast of 5 is the primary metric, as it indicates the potential for a G1 geomagnetic storm that could cause minor fluctuations in satellite operations or power grid voltage.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to Kp 5 (G1) around 21:00 UTC today due to expected solar wind interactions. Conditions will likely stabilize back to Kp 3-4 by early tomorrow morning as the influence passes.
Minor aurora displays may be possible at high latitudes during the peak at 21:00 UTC. Observers in mid-latitudes are unlikely to see significant activity, though sensitive cameras at high-latitude sites should remain alert during the G1 window.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4423 | S06E04 | Dso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4425 | N05E51 | Esc/BG | 2/1/0 |
| AR4424 | N17E19 | Dsi/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4420 | N16W16 | Fkc/BGD | 3/1/0 |
| AR4426 | N12W52 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4427 | S30E53 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4421 | S12W03 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
Watch for any additional M-class flares from AR4420 or AR4425, which could alter the expected intensity of the upcoming geomagnetic disturbance.