GEO: UNSETTLED
4
A/B (quiet)
Geomagnetic conditions are currently unsettled with a Kp-index of 4.0, but no significant storm activity is present. Solar flare potential remains low, with only minor C-class activity detected recently.
The Earth’s magnetic field is experiencing an unsettled state, consistent with ongoing, non-storm levels of activity. The solar disk contains four numbered active regions, though none are showing signs of complex magnetic configurations capable of producing major flares. The current F10.7 flux of 111 sfu indicates a moderate solar background environment.
The current Kp-index of 4.0 is the most critical metric, as it indicates the Earth’s magnetic field is unsettled but remains below the threshold for a geomagnetic storm.
Expect a gradual decline in geomagnetic activity as the current pressure subsides, with the Kp-index forecast to return to quiet levels of 2.0 to 3.0 within the next 24 hours. No significant X-ray bursts or radiation events are anticipated.
At a Kp-index of 4.0, aurora visibility is largely confined to high-latitude regions. Observers at mid-latitudes (40-60°N) are unlikely to see significant activity, though high-latitude skywatchers should remain observant as the unsettled conditions persist.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4436 | N19W65 | Hsx/A | 1/0/0 |
| AR4439 | N06E29 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4440 | N17E28 | Hrx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4441 | N08W15 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
Monitor the magnetic evolution of AR4441 and AR4439; while currently stable, any rapid increase in magnetic complexity could shift the flare probability outlook.