GEO: QUIET
4
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity is currently transitioning toward a G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm. While flare production remains low, Earth’s magnetic field is responding to an incoming solar wind stream.
The planetary K-index has risen to 3.7 as the magnetosphere experiences unsettled conditions. With the F10.7 flux at 132 sfu and 29 active regions across the disk, solar activity is moderate but stable. Current X-ray levels remain in the background range, indicating no immediate risk of radio blackouts.
The predicted Kp=5 threshold is the most critical metric, as it marks the formal beginning of G1 geomagnetic storm conditions.
Expect geomagnetic conditions to reach G1 (Kp=5) levels by approximately 12:00 UTC today. Conditions are likely to remain unsettled thereafter as the magnetic disturbance continues to pass. Flare probability remains low, with only an 80% chance of minor C-class events.
Aurora visibility may extend to high-latitude regions (e.g., northern Canada and Scandinavia) as conditions reach G1 levels around midday. Observers at mid-latitudes are unlikely to see significant activity, though higher-than-average geomagnetic indices suggest potential for faint displays under optimal dark-sky conditions.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4488 | N23W13 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4485 | S10W68 | Dac/BG | 2/0/0 |
| AR4487 | N09W14 | Cao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4482 | S08W12 | Cko/B | 0/0/0 |
Monitor the 12:00 UTC shift for sustained Kp=5 readings, which would confirm the onset of geomagnetic instability.