Author: sitemill

  • Solar Watch — October 09, 2026 | 06:00 UTC

    ☀ Helios Solar Watch · 2026-10-09 04:00 UTC
    QUIET

    Geomagnetic conditions are currently unsettled with a Kp-index of 3.3. Activity is projected to climb toward G1-storm levels by midday today.

    ⚡ Flare activity — last 12 h
    Peak: M @ 16:01 UTC (11h 59min ago) · M @ 16:01 UTC
    HMI Continuum Intensity

    Visible light · 3 active regions

    SUVI 304 — Extreme UV

    Extreme UV · 304 Å

    Kp Index
    3.3
    5 or above = storm

    Geomagnetic
    G0
    24 h max: G2

    X-Ray
    A/B
    quiet


    ⚠ Kp 4 expected · 4 more below
    Next 24 h

    Geomagnetic conditions are forecast to escalate, reaching Kp 4.67 (G1 levels) by 12:00 UTC.

    more

    While overall flare probability remains moderate, AR4549 will be monitored closely for any further eruptive potential as it rotates across the solar disk.

    🌌 Aurora

    At a forecasted Kp 4.67, auroral activity is likely to be confined to high latitudes.

    more

    Observers in northern Canada, Scandinavia, and high-latitude regions may see increased activity; visibility at mid-latitudes (40-60°N) remains unlikely but possible under perfect dark-sky conditions.

    👁 Watch for

    Monitor the geomagnetic index for a breach of the Kp 5 threshold, which would signify the onset of a full G1-class storm.

    ▸ Detailed readings

    Radio blackout
     R0
    (24 h max R0)
    Radiation
     S0
    (24 h max S0)
    F10.7
     112.0
    sfu

    Region Location Class Flares C/M/X
    AR4548 S13W01 Hsx/A 0/0/0
    AR4545 N17W33 Dso/B 0/0/0
    AR4549 N10W29 Eki/BGD 4/1/0
    NOAA messages
    2026-10-09 01:29  Kp 4 expected (WARK04)
    2026-10-08 16:46  ALTTP2 (ALTTP2)
    2026-10-08 16:44  ALTTP4 (ALTTP4)
    2026-10-08 16:04  X-ray flare M5 summary (SUMXM5)
    2026-10-08 15:47  X-ray flare MF reached (ALTXMF)


    Helios Observer · Data: NOAA SWPC · updated every 12 h