GEO: QUIET
8
A/B (quiet)
Geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet with Kp levels residing at 1.7. Solar activity remains moderate, characterized by several active regions across the disk but limited flare production.
The solar disk hosts 8 active regions with a total of 12 active spots, maintaining an F10.7 flux of 124.0 sfu. X-ray flux is currently in the background A/B range, indicating no immediate radio disruption to Earth’s ionosphere. Recent minor geomagnetic fluctuations have subsided, leaving the planetary K-index in a calm state.
The M-class flare probability of 55% is the primary metric to track, as it suggests sufficient complexity in current active regions to trigger localized space weather events.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain largely quiet, with a slight uptick to Kp 3.0 forecast for late UTC hours today. Flare probabilities are stable, with a 55% chance of M-class events due to the magnetic complexity within the active regions.
Aurora visibility is not expected at mid-latitudes (40-60°N) within the next 24 hours. Observers in high-latitude regions may see minor activity, but generally, conditions remain unfavorable for significant displays.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4428 | S24W51 | Dai/BG | 0/0/0 |
| AR4433 | S16E65 | Dso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4432 | N12E38 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4425 | N05W47 | Cso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4430 | N17W58 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4429 | S04W07 | Dai/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4424 | N17W78 | Dso/B | 2/0/0 |
| AR4431 | S16E24 | Dso/B | 0/0/0 |
Monitor AR4428 for rapid magnetic evolution; its beta-gamma classification provides the highest potential for moderate X-ray flaring.