GEO: QUIET
8
A/B (quiet)
Geomagnetic conditions are currently unsettled with a Kp-index of 3.3, though no significant storms are observed. Solar flare activity remains characterized by frequent C-class events, with an elevated 55% probability for M-class flares over the next 24 hours.
The Sun is displaying moderate activity with 8 active regions currently monitored across the disk. The F10.7 solar radio flux is at 124.0 sfu, indicating a moderate level of solar output. While flare production is consistent, it remains confined to the C-class range, resulting in no significant impact on Earth’s magnetosphere or ionosphere at this time.
The 55% probability for M-class flares is the primary metric, as these events can cause localized radio degradation on the sunlit side of Earth.
Expect geomagnetic conditions to briefly reach Kp 4 within the next few hours before trending downward toward quieter levels. Flare activity will likely persist at the C-class level, with a continuing 15% risk for an X-class eruption from complex magnetic regions.
Auroral activity is expected to remain limited. Observers at high latitudes (above 60°N) may see minor activity during the Kp 4 interval, but mid-latitude observers should not expect visible displays.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4425 | N05W31 | Cao/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4428 | S23W39 | Dai/B | 3/0/0 |
| AR4423 | S10W83 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4429 | S04E06 | Dsi/B | 3/0/0 |
| AR4432 | N12E55 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4424 | N17W62 | Eai/B | 3/0/0 |
| AR4430 | N17W45 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4431 | S16E38 | Dso/B | 1/0/0 |
Monitor the evolution of AR4424 and AR4428, as their magnetic complexity warrants attention for potential sudden flare intensification.