GEO: UNSETTLED
6
A/B (quiet)
Geomagnetic conditions are currently unsettled with a Kp-index of 4.0 as the environment responds to previous solar wind stream interactions. Solar activity remains moderate, with high-latitude observers experiencing minor geophysical effects.
The geomagnetic field is fluctuating near the G1 threshold, reflecting the transition through elevated solar wind speeds. Six active regions are present on the solar disk, with AR4420 and AR4424 displaying complex magnetic configurations. The F10.7 index is steady at 106 sfu, indicating a consistent, moderate level of solar radio emission.
The current Kp-index of 4.0 is the most critical metric as it identifies the threshold of geomagnetic disturbance currently impacting terrestrial magnetic sensitive systems.
Expect a brief increase to Kp 4.67 (G1 level) around 06:00 UTC before settling back to quieter levels throughout the remainder of the period. While flaring remains likely, the likelihood of an X-class event is currently limited to 25%.
Aurora visibility remains confined primarily to high latitudes. Observers in northern Canada and Scandinavia may see intermittent activity during the forecasted Kp 4.67 window, but chances for mid-latitude sightings remain low.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4429 | S04E35 | Cro/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4428 | S24W13 | Dai/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4423 | S10W53 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4420 | N16W69 | Fkc/BGD | 4/0/0 |
| AR4424 | N17W35 | Eai/BG | 1/0/0 |
| AR4425 | N05W03 | Ekc/B | 0/0/0 |
Monitor the magnetic evolution of AR4420 and AR4424 for potential rapid growth, which could increase the probability of M-class or X-class flares over the next 24 hours.