M @ 06:57 UTC · M @ 11:22 UTC
GEO: QUIET
8
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity remains unsettled following two M-class flares earlier today. While geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet, the high complexity of active regions maintains a steady outlook for further flare production.
The sun is currently exhibiting moderate activity, with 16 active regions present on the disk. AR4455 is the primary point of interest, having already produced two M-class flares within the last 12 hours. The F10.7 solar flux index is at a moderate 130 sfu, indicating robust solar cycle progression without reaching extreme levels.
The M-class flare probability of 30% is the most critical metric as it signals continued magnetic instability in the solar atmosphere that could impact radio communications.
Expect geomagnetic conditions to remain in the unsettled range with Kp levels peaking near 3.67 through the next 24 hours. The probability for additional C-class flares remains high at 90%, while the chance of M-class activity continues at 30%.
Aurora visibility is not expected at mid-latitudes as Kp indices remain well below the threshold for significant geomagnetic storms. Observers at high polar latitudes may see minor activity, but no widespread displays are forecasted.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4459 | N14E35 | Dai/BG | 0/0/0 |
| AR4458 | S05W08 | Dai/BG | 0/0/0 |
| AR4457 | S08W52 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4455 | N14W20 | Cki/BG | 1/2/0 |
| AR4446 | S14W75 | Cso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4460 | S22W74 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4461 | S20E57 | Cai/BG | 0/0/0 |
| AR4462 | N17E59 | Dro/B | 0/0/0 |
Monitor AR4455 for further impulsive M-class solar flares, which could temporarily impact high-frequency radio propagation on the sunlit side of Earth.