M @ 06:45 UTC
GEO: QUIET
6
A/B (quiet)
Geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet, with the planetary K-index remaining at low levels. While overall activity is stable, active region AR4425 continues to show potential for M-class solar flares.
The Earth’s magnetic field is currently undisturbed with a Kp-index of 1.7. Solar activity is characterized by a stable F10.7 flux of 112 sfu, indicating moderate background solar activity. Seven active regions are currently visible on the solar disk, with AR4425 emerging as the primary focus due to recent M-class flare activity.
The 50% probability of M-class flares from AR4425 is the most critical metric, as it represents the highest risk for sudden ionospheric disturbances.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain at quiet levels, with the Kp-index projected to stay below 2.0 throughout the next 24 hours. The probability of further M-class flares remains at 50%, requiring continued monitoring of AR4425.
Aurora visibility is not expected at mid-latitudes. Observers in high-latitude regions should expect standard, background-level aurora activity only.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4420 | N16W29 | Fkc/BGD | 7/0/0 |
| AR4421 | S12W17 | Hax/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4425 | N05E36 | Ekc/BGD | 4/1/0 |
| AR4424 | N16E06 | Dso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4423 | S05W10 | Cso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4427 | S31E40 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
Monitor AR4425 for any signs of magnetic complexity growth, which would increase the likelihood of stronger X-ray bursts.