M @ 12:44 UTC · M @ 13:15 UTC
GEO: QUIET
5
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity has intensified, highlighted by two M-class flares from AR4475 in the last 12 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are currently unsettled with a brief period of G1 minor storm activity forecast for late today.
Current solar activity is moderate with a 10.7cm flux of 114 sfu and eight active regions across the disk. Two M-class flares originated from AR4475 earlier today, confirming the region’s potential for further eruptions. The planetary K-index has risen to 3.3, reflecting the ongoing response to recent solar wind enhancements.
The Kp-index of 4.67 represents the most immediate impact, as it indicates a transient period of G1 geomagnetic activity capable of inducing minor power grid fluctuations and satellite orientation adjustments.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to peak at Kp 4.67 (G1 level) around 21:00 UTC today before subsiding to quiet levels by early tomorrow. Solar flare probabilities remain weighted toward C-class events, with a 25% chance of further M-class activity over the next 24 hours.
Auroral activity is expected to be limited to high latitudes. Observers at mid-latitudes are unlikely to see displays, though those in northernmost regions should monitor local conditions during the brief peak at 21:00 UTC.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4480 | S18W31 | Dao/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4479 | N16W24 | Eki/BGD | 0/0/0 |
| AR4478 | S05W06 | Fko/BGD | 0/0/0 |
| AR4477 | S18W27 | Bxo/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4475 | S09W62 | Dai/BGD | 3/2/0 |
Monitor AR4475 for additional M-class flares, as its current configuration remains the primary source of instability in the solar atmosphere.