M @ 15:00 UTC
GEO: QUIET
4
A/B (quiet)
Geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet with Kp indices holding steady at 2.0. Solar activity is punctuated by a single M-class flare from AR4472, though background conditions remain settled.
The planetary geomagnetic field is at undisturbed levels. The F10.7 flux is currently at 126.0 sfu, indicating moderate solar radio output consistent with the current cycle progression. While AR4472 produced an M-class flare at 15:00 UTC, the overall X-ray background has returned to A/B levels, indicating minimal immediate impact on Earth’s ionosphere.
The M-class flare peak at 15:00 UTC serves as a reminder of the active potential within AR4472, which warrants continued monitoring for more significant eruptive events.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain quiet to unsettled, with Kp values likely peaking near 2.67 by late UTC hours. Further C-class flare activity is highly probable, with a secondary 25% chance of additional M-class flares as the active regions continue to evolve.
Aurora visibility remains limited to high-latitude regions near the poles. There is no expectation of mid-latitude aurora displays within the next 24 hours.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4472 | S14E54 | Cao/B | 0/1/0 |
| AR4471 | N19W17 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4470 | N08E14 | Dao/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4465 | N08W90 | Cso/B | 0/0/0 |
Monitor the magnetic complexity of AR4472 over the next 12-24 hours to see if the region maintains its potential for further moderate flares.