GEO: QUIET
7
A/B (quiet)
Geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet with a Kp-index near zero. Solar activity is characterized by steady, moderate flare production, primarily driven by AR4420.
The Earth’s magnetic field is undisturbed, with the Kp-index holding at 0.3. The solar disk contains 31 active regions, with AR4420 identified as the primary source of recent M-class flare activity. F10.7 flux is measured at 107.0 sfu, indicating a moderate level of solar radio output consistent with typical levels for this phase of the cycle.
The 55% probability of M-class flares from AR4420 is the primary metric to monitor for potential short-wave radio interference on the sunlit side of Earth.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain in the quiet range for the next 24 hours, with the Kp-index peaking no higher than 1.3. Solar flare probability remains elevated for M-class events due to the magnetic complexity of AR4420, though X-class potential remains low.
Aurora visibility is restricted to high-latitude polar regions. There is no expectation of mid-latitude aurora displays during this period.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4424 | N17W08 | Eao/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4427 | S31E27 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4420 | N16W43 | Fkc/BGD | 10/3/0 |
| AR4423 | S06W26 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4425 | N05E22 | Ekc/BD | 4/0/0 |
| AR4421 | S12W30 | Hrx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4428 | S24E13 | Cro/B | 1/0/0 |
Monitor the magnetic complexity of AR4420, as any sudden evolution in its spot structure could increase the current 15% probability of an X-class solar flare.