M @ 12:22 UTC · M @ 13:53 UTC
GEO: QUIET
7
A/B (quiet)
Geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet, but solar flare activity is elevated due to complex magnetic configurations in AR4420. The Sun is exhibiting moderate levels of activity with no immediate terrestrial impact expected.
The planetary K-index is at a low 1.3, indicating a very stable magnetosphere. Solar activity is being driven by AR4420, which has produced three M-class flares in the last 12 hours. With an F10.7 flux of 113 sfu, the solar environment remains at moderate levels of activity.
The 55% probability of M-class flares is the primary metric, as it highlights the ongoing instability of AR4420 which could disrupt HF radio communications on the sunlit side of Earth if a larger flare occurs.
Geomagnetic conditions will remain quiet, with Kp values expected to hover between 1.67 and 2.0. Solar flare activity is likely to continue at moderate levels, with a 55% probability of further M-class events occurring within the next 24 hours.
No significant aurora activity is expected at mid-latitudes. The current solar wind parameters are insufficient to drive widespread auroral displays beyond the standard polar regions.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4424 | N16W08 | Dso/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4420 | N16W43 | Fkc/BGD | 7/3/0 |
| AR4423 | S05W24 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4421 | S12W31 | Hax/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4425 | N05E22 | Ekc/BGD | 2/0/0 |
| AR4427 | S31E26 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4428 | S23E12 | Cso/B | 0/0/0 |
Monitor AR4420 for further magnetic complexity or sudden structural changes that might signal an X-class flare potential.