GEO: QUIET
8
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity remains at baseline levels with quiet geomagnetic conditions. While the Kp-index is low, multiple active regions keep the potential for moderate solar flares elevated over the next 24 hours.
The Sun is currently hosting 13 active regions, resulting in an F10.7 flux of 117 sfu, indicating moderate solar activity. Geomagnetic conditions are stable with a current Kp-index of 1.7. Recent X-ray flux has been limited to low-level C-class events, with no significant radio blackouts or radiation storms reported.
The 55% probability of M-class flares is the primary metric, as these events can cause localized, temporary radio propagation interference on the sunlit side of Earth.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain quiet to unsettled, reaching a maximum Kp of 3.0. Solar flare production will likely continue with C-class events, while the 55% probability for M-class flares warrants ongoing monitoring of complex sunspot groups.
Aurora visibility is not expected at mid-latitudes. Observers in high-latitude regions may see minor activity if the Kp-index reaches the forecast peak of 3.0, but no significant displays are anticipated.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4423 | S10W83 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4428 | S23W39 | Dai/B | 2/0/0 |
| AR4432 | N12E55 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4430 | N17W45 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4425 | N05W31 | Cao/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4431 | S16E38 | Dso/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4429 | S04E06 | Dsi/B | 2/0/0 |
| AR4424 | N17W62 | Eai/B | 2/0/0 |
Monitor the magnetic complexity of AR4424 and AR4428 for potential impulsive M-class solar flares.