GEO: UNSETTLED
8
A/B (quiet)
Geomagnetic conditions are currently elevated at Kp 4.3 but are trending toward quiet levels. The solar disk remains moderately active with multiple sunspot regions, though flare production is currently limited to low-level C-class events.
The Earth is experiencing the tail end of unsettled geomagnetic activity, with the planetary K-index peaking recently at 4.3. Solar flux is holding steady at 102 sfu, reflecting a moderate level of solar activity. While eight active regions are present, they are characterized by stable magnetic configurations, resulting in a 95% probability for C-class flares but a low 5% risk for significant X-class events.
The Kp-index, currently at 4.3, is the primary metric to watch as its rapid decline indicates a stabilizing magnetosphere following a period of minor disturbance.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to drop significantly within the next 6 hours, returning to quiet Kp 2 levels or below by mid-day. No major solar disruptions are anticipated, though low-level C-class flare activity will likely continue across the solar disk.
Aurora visibility is currently limited to high-latitude regions. As the K-index trends downward over the next 24 hours, the chances for seeing auroras at mid-latitudes will diminish, likely restricting any visual displays to high-latitude observers in polar regions.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4479 | N14E58 | Axx/A | 1/0/0 |
| AR4470 | N07W38 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4472 | S15E02 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4473 | S09E13 | Bxo/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4475 | S09E21 | Cai/BG | 6/0/0 |
| AR4476 | N08W03 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4477 | S13E56 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4478 | S06E75 | Fkc/BG | 4/0/0 |
Monitor AR4478, which is currently on the east limb; its complex magnetic structure bears watching for potential flare development as it rotates into a more geo-effective position.