GEO: QUIET
4
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity remains at low-to-moderate levels with no significant geomagnetic storms currently in progress. We expect a modest uptick in geomagnetic instability over the next 24 hours as solar wind conditions evolve.
The sun is currently quiet, with an F10.7 flux of 136 sfu indicating a moderate level of solar activity. Six active regions are visible on the disk, primarily contributing to background noise, and current X-ray flux is at A/B levels. Planetary K-index values are low at 1.3, reflecting a stable magnetosphere.
The F10.7 flux of 136 sfu is the most important metric as it quantifies the overall ionization level of our upper atmosphere and provides a baseline for satellite drag and radio propagation.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to become slightly unsettled, with the Kp-index projected to climb toward 4.0 by early May 15th. No significant radio blackouts or radiation storms are anticipated during this period.
Aurora visibility is not expected for mid-latitudes at this time. Observers in high-latitude regions may see minor, transient activity as the Kp-index approaches 4.0, but no major displays are forecasted.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4435 | N21W67 | Csi/B | 7/0/0 |
| AR4436 | N18E01 | Cao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4433 | S17W80 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4438 | N19W44 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
Monitor the evolution of active region AR4435, as it remains the most likely candidate for potential M-class flaring activity in the coming 24 hours.