Author: sitemill

  • Solar Watch — May 01, 2026 | 18:00 UTC

    ☀ HELIOS SOLAR WATCH · 2026-05-01 16:00 UTC
    Quiet geomagnetic conditions persist with moderate flare potential
    SOLAR: MODERATE
    GEO: QUIET

    Active Regions
    9
    X-Ray
    A/B (quiet)

    Geomagnetic activity is currently at low levels with a planetary K-index of 1.0. Solar activity remains moderate, with 13 active regions and a 55% probability of M-class flares in the next 24 hours.

    HMI Continuum Intensity

    HMI Continuum · Visible Light

    SUVI 304 — Extreme UV

    SUVI 304Å · Extreme Ultraviolet

    R0
    Radio Blackouts
    24h max: R0

    S0
    Solar Radiation
    24h max: S0

    G0
    Geomagnetic Storm
    24h max: G0

    Planetary Kp-Index
    1.0
    0–9 scale · ≥5 = geomagnetic storm

    F10.7 Solar Flux
    106.0
    sfu · >150 = high activity

    The Earth’s magnetosphere is quiet, reflecting a lull following a brief period of unsettled conditions. With an F10.7 flux of 106 sfu, solar output is moderate but steady. While 13 active regions are present on the solar disk, overall X-ray activity is currently limited to low-level C-class events.

    Key Metric

    The 55% probability for M-class flares is the primary metric to watch, as these could cause brief, localized radio signal degradation on the sunlit side of Earth.

    Expect geomagnetic conditions to remain quiet with Kp indices hovering between 1 and 2. While minor radio fluctuations are possible due to the 55% M-class flare probability, no significant geomagnetic storms are anticipated.

    🌌 Aurora Outlook

    Aurora visibility is restricted to high-latitude regions. Observers at mid-latitudes should not expect significant activity during this period.

    Region Location Class Flares C/M/X
    AR4431 S16E53 Dao/B 2/0/0
    AR4429 S04E20 Dso/B 0/0/0
    AR4430 N16W31 Dao/B 0/0/0
    AR4424 N17W49 Eai/B 1/0/0
    AR4425 N05W19 Dao/B 0/0/0
    AR4423 S10W67 Bxo/B 0/0/0
    AR4420 N16W83 Cao/B 4/0/0
    AR4428 S23W27 Dai/B 0/0/0
    AR4432 N11E68 Bxo/B 0/0/0
    2026-05-01 15:50:32.247Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
    2026-04-30 23:59:26.927Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
    2026-04-30 23:11:27.400Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
    2026-04-30 23:09:26.960Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
    2026-04-30 20:35:36.850Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04

    Monitor the magnetic complexity of AR4431 and AR4424, as their configurations pose the highest likelihood for impulsive flare production.