M @ 14:18 UTC
GEO: QUIET
3
A/B (quiet)
Geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet with a Kp-index of 1.0. While solar activity is generally low, a recent M-class flare suggests the potential for continued impulsive eruptions.
The Earth’s magnetic field is stable, with no current geomagnetic storming. The F10.7 solar flux is at a moderate 142.0 sfu, supported by seven active regions on the solar disk. AR4482 stands out with a complex ‘Eki/BG’ magnetic configuration, warranting close observation.
The M-class flare probability of 55% is the most important metric, as it indicates a sustained risk of sudden radio communication interference on the sunlit side of Earth.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain low, with Kp levels hovering around 1.33 for the next 24 hours. The probability of M-class flares remains elevated at 55%, though no significant proton events are anticipated.
Aurora visibility is restricted to high-latitude regions. Observers at mid-latitudes should not expect significant auroral displays under current conditions.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4485 | N11W13 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4481 | N14E07 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4482 | S09E42 | Eki/BG | 0/0/0 |
Monitor the evolution of AR4482, as its complex magnetic structure is the most likely candidate for further M-class solar flares.