Author: sitemill

  • Solar Watch — May 17, 2026 | 06:00 UTC

    Solar Flare Activity — Last 12 Hours
    Peak: M-class @ 17:42 UTC (10h 18min ago)
      M @ 16:07 UTC  ·  M @ 16:38 UTC  ·  M @ 17:41 UTC  ·  M @ 03:37 UTC

    ☀ HELIOS SOLAR WATCH · 2026-05-17 04:00 UTC
    Solar activity subsiding following recent M-class flare activity
    SOLAR: UNSETTLED
    GEO: QUIET

    Active Regions
    5
    X-Ray
    A/B (quiet)

    Geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet, following a series of M-class flares observed over the past 24 hours. The solar environment remains unsettled as active regions, particularly AR4436, continue to show potential for further impulsive flare activity.

    HMI Continuum Intensity

    HMI Continuum · Visible Light

    SUVI 304 — Extreme UV

    SUVI 304Å · Extreme Ultraviolet

    R0
    Radio Blackouts
    24h max: R0

    S0
    Solar Radiation
    24h max: S0

    G0
    Geomagnetic Storm
    24h max: G1

    Planetary Kp-Index
    2.0
    0–9 scale · ≥5 = geomagnetic storm

    F10.7 Solar Flux
    117.0
    sfu · >150 = high activity

    The planetary K-index has dropped to 2.0 after a period of elevated activity. Solar flux is holding steady at 117.0 sfu, suggesting moderate solar activity levels. While X-ray flux is currently at background levels, the presence of several active regions, notably AR4436, keeps the probability for additional C-class flares at 55%.

    Key Metric

    The current Kp-index of 2.0 is the most important metric as it indicates a period of geomagnetic recovery after recent volatility.

    Geomagnetic activity is expected to briefly reach G1 (minor) levels around 06:00 UTC due to residual influences, before tapering off to quiet levels for the remainder of the day. No sustained, high-intensity storming is anticipated.

    🌌 Aurora Outlook

    Aurora visibility is restricted to high-latitude regions. Observers at mid-latitudes are unlikely to see significant activity, though a brief window of improved conditions is possible around 06:00 UTC.

    Region Location Class Flares C/M/X
    AR4441 N08E28 Dro/B 0/0/0
    AR4440 N17E71 Cao/B 0/0/0
    AR4436 N19W26 Hsx/A 1/2/0
    AR4438 N20W70 Dao/B 0/0/0
    AR4439 N06E68 Dao/B 1/0/0
    2026-05-16 21:34:00.863Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
    2026-05-16 18:14:04.680Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
    2026-05-16 18:13:39.377Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
    2026-05-16 18:04:18.300Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
    2026-05-16 17:53:25.087Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3

    Monitor AR4436 for any new impulsive M-class solar flares, which could temporarily disrupt shortwave radio communication on the sunlit side of Earth.