GEO: UNSETTLED
8
A/B (quiet)
Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet with Kp levels at 1.0, and no immediate storm activity is expected. While the solar disk remains calm, there is a moderate 70% probability for M-class solar flares due to the complexity of current active regions.
The sun is currently in a quiet geomagnetic state with an F10.7 flux of 112.0 sfu, indicating moderate solar activity levels. While 15 active regions are present on the disk, overall X-ray activity is low, with only minor C-class flares recorded in the last 12 hours. The S1 radiation level reflects an elevated proton environment, but this does not currently pose a significant threat to infrastructure.
The 70% M-class flare probability is the most critical metric, as it indicates that while conditions are currently stable, the magnetic complexity of the active regions could produce sudden radio signal fluctuations.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain at quiet levels, with a slight rise in the Kp index to 2.67 by early tomorrow. Solar flare activity will likely persist at low levels, though the presence of several active regions warrants continued monitoring for potential impulsive bursts.
Aurora visibility is not expected for mid-latitudes over the next 24 hours. Observers in high-latitude regions may see quiet, stable auroral activity, but conditions are insufficient for significant displays.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4450 | N09E37 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4449 | S10E37 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4448 | S08E42 | Cao/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4447 | S16W02 | Dai/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4446 | S16E43 | Fho/BG | 1/0/0 |
| AR4445 | N07E12 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4444 | S21E04 | Cso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4443 | S16W57 | Cso/B | 0/0/0 |
Monitor the evolution of active regions AR4448 and AR4446 for signs of magnetic field restructuring that could trigger M-class flare activity.