GEO: QUIET
8
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity is currently quiet, but geomagnetic conditions are forecast to escalate to G2 storm levels within the next 24 hours. This shift is driven by incoming solar wind disturbances.
The geomagnetic field is currently quiet with a Kp-index of 2.0 and the solar environment remains stable with moderate X-ray flux. Eight active regions are visible on the disk, with AR4456 showing the most complexity. The F10.7 solar radio flux stands at 148 sfu, indicating moderate levels of solar activity consistent with the current cycle phase.
The forecast Kp-index peak of 5.67 is the most critical metric as it signals a G2 geomagnetic storm capable of causing minor power grid fluctuations and satellite orientation irregularities.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to rise sharply, reaching Kp 5.0 (G1) by 09:00 UTC and peaking at Kp 5.67 (G2) around 12:00 UTC. Solar flare probability remains moderate, with a 40% chance of M-class events as active regions transit the solar disk.
Mid-latitude observers (40-60°N) should prepare for potential auroral activity beginning late morning and extending into the afternoon as G1 to G2 storm conditions take hold. Visibility will be best at higher latitudes, but a G2 event may allow for low-horizon sightings in northern regions of the US and Europe.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4458 | S05W62 | Dso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4456 | N17W48 | Dai/BG | 8/0/0 |
| AR4455 | N15W75 | Hsx/A | 1/0/0 |
| AR4459 | N14W18 | Cso/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4461 | S21E05 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4462 | N15E05 | Dsi/B | 2/0/0 |
| AR4463 | N17E37 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4464 | S12E38 | Dai/B | 2/0/0 |
Monitor the arrival of the predicted high-speed solar wind stream, which will be confirmed by a sudden increase in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) total magnitude and potential southward shifts in the Bz component.