GEO: QUIET
8
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity is currently characterized by moderate flare production and unsettled geomagnetic conditions. While no significant storms are in progress, AR4455 remains a focal point for potential M-class activity.
The solar environment is currently displaying moderate complexity with 39 active regions observed across the disk. AR4455, currently positioned at N14W21, has demonstrated the capacity for M-class flare production, though current X-ray flux remains in the quiet A/B range. Planetary K-index levels are fluctuating near 2.7, reflecting a mild interaction with the solar wind.
The current Kp-index of 2.7 indicates that Earth’s magnetic field is currently in an unsettled but non-storming state.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain in the unsettled range with Kp indices likely peaking at 4.0 during the next 24-hour window. Radio flare probability remains elevated, particularly for C-class events at 90%, with a 25% chance of further M-class activity from active regions.
Aurora visibility is currently restricted to high latitudes. Observers at mid-latitudes are unlikely to see significant activity unless geomagnetic conditions intensify beyond current projections.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4462 | N17E60 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4461 | S21E59 | Cai/BG | 0/0/0 |
| AR4460 | S22W74 | Dso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4459 | N14E36 | Dai/BG | 1/0/0 |
| AR4458 | S05W08 | Dai/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4457 | S08W55 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4455 | N14W21 | Dki/BGD | 2/2/0 |
| AR4446 | S14W74 | Cso/B | 0/0/0 |
Monitor AR4455 for any sudden increase in magnetic complexity, as it is the primary source of recent M-class flare activity.