M @ 01:31 UTC
GEO: QUIET
8
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity remains at moderate levels with stable geomagnetic conditions. While no active storms are present, the sun is showing consistent potential for C-class and M-class solar flares.
The planetary K-index is currently steady at 2.0, indicating a quiet magnetosphere. Solar flux is holding at 126.0 sfu, supported by a healthy count of 32 active regions. A recent M-class flare occurred early this morning, underscoring the ongoing potential for localized solar activity despite the lack of significant terrestrial impacts.
The 45% probability of M-class flares is the primary metric to track, as it indicates the sun remains dynamic enough to potentially disrupt localized radio communications on the sunlit side of Earth.
Expect the geomagnetic field to remain at or near quiet levels, with Kp values expected to dip back toward 1.67 over the next 24 hours. No significant space weather disturbances are anticipated for Earth’s orbital environment during this period.
Aurora activity is currently restricted to high-latitude regions. Observers at mid-latitudes are unlikely to see displays in the next 24 hours given the quiet geomagnetic state.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4428 | S24W51 | Dai/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4425 | N05W48 | Cao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4430 | N17W58 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4429 | S04W07 | Dai/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4424 | N17W78 | Dao/B | 2/0/0 |
| AR4432 | N12E40 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4431 | S16E24 | Dso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4433 | S16E68 | Dso/B | 0/0/0 |
Monitor AR4431 and AR4433 as they rotate further onto the visible disk, as these regions are currently the most likely candidates for sustained flare activity.