GEO: QUIET
8
A/B (quiet)
Current solar activity is characterized by a stable but active F10.7 flux and minor fluctuations in the planetary K-index. While the sun remains quiet regarding major radiation storms, active region AR4455 continues to show potential for moderate flare production.
The sun is currently exhibiting moderate activity with an F10.7 flux of 104.0 sfu. The planetary K-index is hovering around 3.3, reflecting an unsettled magnetosphere due to ongoing solar wind stream interactions. AR4455 is the primary region of interest, having recently produced an M-class flare, confirming its capacity for energetic events.
The F10.7 flux of 104.0 sfu indicates a moderate solar cycle phase, which maintains a stable environment for satellite drag and ionospheric density.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain unsettled through the next 24 hours, with a brief uptick to Kp 4.0 predicted near 06:00 UTC. Solar flare potential remains steady, with a 45% probability of additional M-class activity originating from AR4455.
Aurora visibility is restricted to high latitudes. Current conditions do not support mid-latitude sightings, and observers at 40-60°N are unlikely to see significant activity, even during the expected Kp 4.0 peak.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4455 | N15E52 | Eko/B | 5/1/0 |
| AR4454 | S15E34 | Hrx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4452 | N10W48 | Dai/BG | 0/0/0 |
| AR4444 | S21W35 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4446 | S16E03 | Cko/BG | 0/0/0 |
| AR4447 | S17W41 | Cso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4448 | S05W00 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4449 | S10W02 | Cso/B | 1/0/0 |
Monitor the magnetic complexity of AR4455 as it rotates toward the center of the solar disk for any signs of development that could increase the likelihood of further M-class flares.