GEO: QUIET
11
A/B (quiet)
Current solar conditions are quiet, with no geomagnetic storming present and F10.7 flux at a moderate 108 sfu. While current activity is low, there is a sustained 65% probability of M-class flares over the next 48 hours due to the presence of eleven active regions.
The Earth’s magnetosphere is currently stable with a Kp-index of 2.0. Eleven active regions are visible on the solar disk, with AR4446 and AR4454 showing complexity that warrants monitoring for potential eruptive activity. Current X-ray output remains in the A/B background range, indicating no significant immediate threat to radio communications.
The 65% probability of M-class flares is the primary metric, as it highlights a latent instability in the sun’s current active regions despite the present quiet conditions.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain unsettled but calm, with Kp levels forecasted to drop to 2.0 by mid-day. While solar activity will likely stay in the low-to-moderate range, observers should prepare for potential isolated M-class flares which may cause brief, localized radio fades.
Aurora visibility is not expected at mid-latitudes during this period. Activity is restricted to high-latitude regions, and even there, display intensity will likely remain minimal.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4453 | N11W63 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4455 | N14E78 | Hax/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4454 | S15E61 | Axx/A | 2/0/0 |
| AR4452 | N09W21 | Cai/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4449 | S10E23 | Hax/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4448 | S07E28 | Cao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4447 | S17W14 | Dsi/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4446 | S16E30 | Fko/BG | 1/0/0 |
| AR4443 | S17W67 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4444 | S21W09 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4445 | N07W02 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
Monitor AR4446 and AR4454 for any sudden growth in magnetic complexity, which would increase the likelihood of impulsive M-class flaring.