GEO: UNSETTLED
9
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity is characterized by a moderate F10.7 flux of 108 sfu and a persistent risk of M-class flares. Geomagnetic conditions are currently unsettled but remain below storm thresholds.
Nine active regions are visible on the disk, with AR4446 and AR4448 showing the most magnetic complexity. Background X-ray flux is at low levels following minor C-class flare activity. The current Kp index of 2.3 reflects a quiet geomagnetic environment following a brief period of elevation.
The 70% probability for M-class flares is the primary metric to monitor, as any sudden eruption could trigger localized, short-duration radio blackouts.
Expect geomagnetic conditions to stabilize further as Kp values trend downward from 3.0 toward 2.3 over the next 24 hours. The potential for M-class solar flares remains notable at 70%, which could briefly impact shortwave radio propagation on the sunlit side of Earth.
Aurora visibility is not expected for mid-latitudes given the current Kp index of 2.3. Observers at high polar latitudes may see faint auroral activity, but conditions are not favorable for lower-latitude viewing.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4452 | N09W07 | Cro/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4450 | N09E36 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4449 | S11E37 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4448 | S08E42 | Dao/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4443 | S16W57 | Cso/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4444 | S21E05 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4445 | N07E11 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4446 | S16E43 | Fho/BG | 2/0/0 |
| AR4447 | S16W02 | Dsi/B | 0/0/0 |
Monitor the magnetic evolution of AR4446 and AR4448, as their potential for growth could elevate flare probabilities beyond the current projections.