M @ 10:16 UTC · M @ 10:47 UTC
GEO: QUIET
4
A/B (quiet)
Geomagnetic conditions remain quiet with a Kp-index of 0.7, indicating a stable magnetosphere. While the sun is geomagnetically calm, there is notable underlying flare activity from recent hours.
The planetary K-index is currently at 0.7, reflecting a tranquil environment for satellite operators and power grids. Despite the lack of current geomagnetic storms, solar activity is brewing; multiple active regions remain, and we have observed two M-class solar flares within the last 12 hours. The F10.7 solar radio flux is holding steady at 99.0 sfu, sitting right at the threshold of low-to-moderate activity.
The 75% probability for M-class flares is the primary metric to monitor, as it suggests the potential for future short-term radio blackouts despite the current quiet status.
We anticipate quiet to unsettled conditions over the next 24 hours, with Kp levels expected to peak near 2.67. Geomagnetic stability should persist, though the 75% probability of M-class flares suggests that further impulsive X-ray bursts are likely.
Aurora visibility for mid-latitudes (40-60°N) is currently unlikely. Observers at very high northern latitudes may see minor activity if minor solar wind enhancements arrive, but no significant displays are forecast.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4441 | N08W58 | Eai/BG | 0/0/0 |
| AR4443 | S16W05 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4439 | N06W17 | Cro/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4444 | S20E53 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
Watch for any sudden X-ray flux increases in the GOES data, which would indicate an M-class flare event and potential high-frequency radio signal degradation on the sunlit side of Earth.