GEO: QUIET
6
A/B (quiet)
Current solar activity remains quiet with no significant flare events observed. A minor geomagnetic disturbance is currently passing through the planetary field, which will likely settle over the coming hours.
The Sun is currently in a stable state with six active regions visible, none of which are showing complex magnetic configurations. X-ray flux is at low background levels, and the F10.7 radio flux of 112 sfu indicates moderate solar activity, consistent with the current cycle. Current geomagnetic conditions are at Kp 2.7, indicating a minor, non-storming departure from equilibrium.
The current Kp-index of 2.7 is the most important metric, as it indicates a return to quiet conditions following a period of minor, transient instability.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to oscillate between Kp 3 and Kp 4 through the next 24 hours as the remaining effects of the minor disturbance dissipate. No significant solar radiation or radio blackout events are expected, as flare probabilities for M and X-class events remain very low.
Aurora activity will be limited to high latitudes, typically above 60 degrees. Mid-latitude observers are unlikely to see significant displays given the forecasted Kp levels and the lack of strong solar wind drivers.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4436 | N19W52 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4440 | N17E42 | Hax/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4442 | S15E28 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4441 | N09W01 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4439 | N07E42 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4443 | S14E47 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
Watch for the settling of the Kp-index toward 2.0-3.0 in the next 12 hours as the current geomagnetic disturbance rotates out of range.