M @ 02:40 UTC
GEO: QUIET
5
A/B (quiet)
Geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet with no significant storming expected. While the solar disk remains active with multiple sunspot regions, flaring is restricted to minor M-class events that pose no current threat to Earth’s magnetosphere.
The planetary K-index is stable at 1.3, reflecting a quiet geomagnetic environment. Solar activity is punctuated by two moderate M-class flares from active regions AR4473 and AR4472, though the solar X-ray background remains largely within nominal ranges. The F10.7 flux is measured at 117.0 sfu, indicative of moderate but sustained solar output.
The current F10.7 flux of 117.0 sfu indicates a healthy, moderate level of solar cycle activity without the disruptive energy of an active storm phase.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain at or below Kp 3 through the next 24 hours as the solar wind environment stays calm. We anticipate ongoing minor flare activity, primarily C-class, with a residual 25% probability for additional M-class flares.
Aurora visibility remains confined to high-latitude regions. No significant activity for mid-latitude observers (40-60°N) is forecast for the next 24 hours.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4473 | S08E69 | Eko/B | 2/1/0 |
| AR4465 | N08W90 | Cso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4470 | N08E14 | Dao/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4471 | N19W17 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4472 | S14E54 | Dao/B | 0/1/0 |
Monitor the evolution of active regions AR4473 and AR4472 as they transit toward the center of the solar disk, as their magnetic complexity could shift toward increased flaring frequency.