GEO: QUIET
3
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity is currently characterized by moderate geomagnetic conditions and a stable, quiet X-ray profile. While no significant storms are active, elevated planetary indices suggest ongoing minor coupling between solar wind streams and the magnetosphere.
The planetary K-index has risen to 3.0, reflecting a shift toward unsettled geomagnetic conditions. Solar flux (F10.7) holds steady at 122 sfu, indicating a moderate level of solar activity commensurate with current cycle expectations. The solar disk contains five active regions, though none are exhibiting complex magnetic configurations, resulting in a low probability of significant flare events.
The F10.7 index of 122 sfu is the primary metric to track, as it provides a reliable gauge of the overall solar ionizing radiation impacting the Earth’s upper atmosphere.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to peak at Kp 4.0 within the next few hours before subsiding to Kp 3.0 by midday. Expect continued stable conditions with minimal risk of radio blackouts or satellite interference, as solar flare probability remains largely contained to the C-class range.
At a Kp of 3 to 4, auroral activity is confined to high latitudes. Observers in mid-latitudes (40-60°N) should not expect to see visible aurora during this period, as current geomagnetic forcing is insufficient to push the auroral oval toward lower latitudes.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4471 | N18W03 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4470 | N07E25 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4465 | N07W77 | Cso/B | 0/0/0 |
Monitor the magnetic complexity of AR4471 and AR4470, as any rapid evolution in these regions could lead to an uptick in flare activity beyond current forecasts.