GEO: QUIET
5
A/B (quiet)
Geomagnetic activity is subsiding toward quiet levels after a brief period of unsettled conditions. Solar activity remains moderate with high background flux, but flare production is currently confined to the low C-class range.
The planetary K-index has decreased to 3.3, reflecting the waning influence of a previous disturbance. Solar radio flux remains elevated at 164 sfu, indicating a robust solar cycle phase, although X-ray output remains subdued. With five active regions present, the solar disk maintains moderate complexity, particularly in AR4465, which is capable of producing further C-class flaring.
The F10.7 index of 164 sfu is the most significant metric, as it indicates a high level of solar ionizing radiation that impacts ionospheric density and satellite drag.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to return to quiet levels within the next 6 to 12 hours as the solar wind environment stabilizes. Expect low-level solar activity to persist, with a 40% probability of M-class flares should the magnetic complexity of current regions increase.
Aurora visibility is not expected at mid-latitudes. Activity is confined to high-latitude regions, and even there, display intensity will likely be limited due to the receding Kp index.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4466 | N06W47 | Cro/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4462 | N15W50 | Dro/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4463 | N17W15 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4464 | S12W16 | Dsi/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4465 | N09E30 | Dhi/BG | 5/0/0 |
Monitor the magnetic evolution of AR4465 as it rotates across the solar disk; any rapid increase in its magnetic complexity could lead to an unexpected M-class flare.