GEO: QUIET
8
A/B (quiet)
Geomagnetic activity is escalating as Earth anticipates the arrival of a solar disturbance. Conditions are expected to reach G3 (strong) levels within the next 8-12 hours.
While currently quiet with a Kp of 1.3, the environment is shifting rapidly. The F10.7 flux remains at a moderate 146 sfu, reflecting a sun populated by 38 active regions. We are seeing a transition from background X-ray flux to potential disturbance as magnetospheric indices begin their upward climb.
The forecasted Kp-index peak of 6.67 is the most critical metric, as it indicates the onset of a significant geomagnetic disturbance capable of impacting power grid stability and satellite operations.
Geomagnetic levels will rise sharply throughout the day, moving from unsettled to G3 storm conditions by approximately 12:00 UTC. Expect fluctuating conditions as the solar wind interaction intensifies over the coming hours.
Aurora observers at high and mid-latitudes should prepare for increased activity; visibility may extend toward the northern United States and central Europe as the storm reaches G3 intensity.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4462 | N17E47 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4461 | S21E45 | Cri/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4460 | S22W88 | Dso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4459 | N14E22 | Dai/BG | 0/0/0 |
| AR4458 | S05W21 | Dai/BG | 1/0/0 |
| AR4457 | S09W72 | Cro/B | 2/0/0 |
| AR4455 | N15W34 | Dki/BG | 1/0/0 |
| AR4446 | S14W88 | Cso/B | 1/0/0 |
Watch for the sudden increase in the planetary K-index starting around 09:00 UTC, which will signal the onset of the geomagnetic storm.