M @ 04:45 UTC · M @ 10:02 UTC
GEO: QUIET
7
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity is currently moderate, characterized by quiet geomagnetic conditions and intermittent flare activity. While the Kp-index remains low, the solar disk exhibits notable complexity, particularly within Active Region 4455.
Geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet with a Kp-index of 1.7, indicating minimal interaction between the solar wind and Earth’s magnetosphere. Solar flux is holding at 115 sfu, supporting moderate levels of ionospheric density. Recent activity has been marked by a series of M-class flares originating from AR4455, though these have not yet resulted in significant geomagnetic disturbances.
The 40% probability of M-class flares from AR4455 is the primary metric to watch, as sustained flare activity may influence satellite communication and navigation systems.
Expect geomagnetic conditions to remain largely unsettled with Kp-values likely staying below 3.0. There is a persistent 40% probability of further M-class flare activity, primarily associated with the evolution of AR4455.
Aurora visibility is not expected at mid-latitudes (40-60°N). Observers should anticipate quiet conditions with no significant visual auroral displays forecast for the next 24 hours.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4459 | N14E47 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4458 | S04E05 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4457 | S08W42 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4455 | N15W04 | Cko/B | 1/1/0 |
| AR4449 | S07W59 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4446 | S15W62 | Cso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4444 | S22W87 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
Monitor the magnetic complexity of AR4455 for any structural changes that could indicate the potential for higher-intensity X-class flare development.