M @ 16:25 UTC · M @ 17:55 UTC · M @ 19:05 UTC · M @ 21:22 UTC
GEO: QUIET
6
A/B (quiet)
Geomagnetic conditions are currently unsettled but quiet, while solar flare potential remains high following a recent series of M-class eruptions. The solar disk contains 30 active regions, indicating a complex and dynamic surface.
The planetary K-index is hovering around 2.7, reflecting calm magnetospheric conditions. F10.7 solar radio flux is holding steady at 141.0 sfu, supporting elevated ionization levels. While current X-ray flux is quiet, the 55% probability of M-class flares suggests that the visible active regions remain magnetically unstable.
The 55% M-class flare probability is the most significant metric, as it highlights the sustained magnetic instability across multiple active regions.
Expect geomagnetic conditions to oscillate between quiet and unsettled, with Kp levels likely peaking near 4.0 before tapering off later today. Solar flare activity will likely continue, with a primary focus on regions that have shown recent energetic output.
Aurora visibility is not expected at mid-latitudes under current conditions. Observers at very high latitudes may see minor auroral activity, but conditions are currently insufficient for widespread displays.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4482 | S08E62 | Cso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4481 | N14E33 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4478 | S05W74 | Eko/BG | 0/0/0 |
| AR4485 | S09E13 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4484 | N14E05 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4483 | S07W29 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
Monitor the evolution of AR4478 as it approaches the western limb for any signs of late-stage eruptive behavior or flare development.