☀ Helios Solar Watch · 2026-08-15 16:00 UTC
QUIET
Solar activity remains at baseline levels with quiet geomagnetic conditions. We expect a brief period of unsettled activity as the Kp index reaches a forecast peak of 3.0 within the next several hours.
Visible light · 7 active regions
Extreme UV · 304 Å
Kp Index
2.0
5 or above = storm
Geomagnetic
G0
24 h max: G0
X-Ray
A/B
quiet
⚠ Kp 4 expected · 4 more below
Next 24 h
The Kp index is expected to climb to 3.0 by 18:00 UTC, maintaining an unsettled state through the late evening. By early tomorrow, activity will likely return to a quiet state, with Kp levels receding to 2.33.
🌌 Aurora
Aurora visibility is not expected at mid-latitudes during this period.
more
Observers in high-latitude regions may see minor, localized aurora activity if the Kp 3.0 threshold is reached.
👁 Watch for
Monitor the evolution of AR4506 as it tracks across the solar disk; its complexity warrants attention for potential impulsive C- or M-class flare production.
▸ Detailed readings
Radio blackout
R0
(24 h max R0)
R0
(24 h max R0)
Radiation
S0
(24 h max S0)
S0
(24 h max S0)
F10.7
145.0
sfu
145.0
sfu
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4507 | N04W15 | Dai/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4503 | S17W81 | Cso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4511 | S09E40 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4509 | N10W89 | Cso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4508 | N08E15 | Cso/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4506 | N11W31 | Bxo/B | 2/0/0 |
| AR4510 | N12W44 | Cro/B | 0/0/0 |
NOAA messages
2026-08-14 10:54 Kp 4 expected (WARK04)
2026-08-14 07:15 ALTTP2 (ALTTP2)
2026-08-11 20:55 Kp 20 possible (WATA20)
2026-08-11 11:41 Proton flux UD summary (SUMSUD)
2026-08-11 10:47 Proton flux UD expected (WARSUD)
Helios Observer · Data: NOAA SWPC · updated every 12 h