M @ 19:21 UTC · M @ 20:01 UTC · M @ 22:55 UTC
GEO: QUIET
7
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity is elevated with multiple M-class flares recorded in the last 12 hours from AR4425 and AR4420. Despite this X-ray activity, planetary geomagnetic conditions remain settled at Kp 3.
The Sun is displaying moderate activity with an F10.7 flux of 112 sfu and seven active regions currently on the visible disk. Three M-class flares were observed within the last 12 hours, indicating high magnetic complexity in the northern hemisphere. However, these events have not yet triggered significant geomagnetic storms, keeping current conditions within the unsettled range.
The 50% probability of M-class flares is the primary metric, as ongoing eruptions represent a consistent, albeit localized, source of space weather stress.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to trend downward, with the Kp-index dropping from 3 to 2 by the end of the period. While the probability of further C-class flares remains high at 99%, the primary focus will be the ongoing potential for isolated M-class eruptions from the evolving active regions.
Aurora visibility is not expected at mid-latitudes given the current Kp 3 status. Observers at very high latitudes may see minor, quiet-time auroral activity, but no significant displays are forecast for the next 24 hours.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4423 | S06E04 | Dso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4427 | S30E53 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4425 | N05E50 | Esc/BGD | 5/2/0 |
| AR4424 | N17E19 | Dsi/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4420 | N16W16 | Fkc/BGD | 7/1/0 |
| AR4426 | N12W52 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4421 | S12W03 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
Monitor the magnetic evolution of AR4425 as it rotates further toward the center of the disk, as it currently shows the highest potential for continued flaring.