GEO: QUIET
4
A/B (quiet)
Geomagnetic conditions remain quiet as solar activity continues at a low, stable baseline. While the planetary K-index remains low, the high probability for M-class flares suggests the potential for increased activity in the coming 48 hours.
The Earth’s magnetic field is currently undisturbed with a Kp-index of 1.0. Solar activity is characterized by 29 active regions across the disk, though currently displaying minimal explosive potential beyond minor C-class events. The 10.7cm radio flux is holding steady at 98.0 sfu, consistent with a moderate but non-strenuous solar cycle phase.
The 65% probability of M-class flares is the primary metric, as a significant eruption could rapidly transition space weather conditions from quiet to active.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at quiet levels, with Kp indices hovering between 1 and 2. While major storms are not anticipated, the 65% probability of M-class flares warrants monitoring for sudden radio blackout events on the sunlit side of Earth.
Aurora visibility is not expected for mid-latitudes. Observers in high-latitude regions may see standard, quiet-time auroral displays, but no storm-driven enhancements are currently forecasted.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4443 | S16W05 | Dso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4439 | N06W17 | Cro/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4441 | N08W58 | Eai/BG | 1/0/0 |
| AR4444 | S20E53 | Cso/B | 1/0/0 |
Monitor the X-ray flux for any rapid escalation in intensity from the four primary active regions, which would indicate a heightened risk for short-wave radio propagation interference.